Auf den Seiten von Lyndon LaRouche findet sich heute ein Artikel "The moment of truth" für Deutsche Bank und Commerzbank, deren Verluste aufgrund der Subprime-Krise wohl doch größer zu sein scheinen, als ursprünglich angenommen.
Interessant dabei: die nun genannten 1,7 Mrd. EUR für die Deutsche Bank sind nach LaRouche's Aussage sogar noch "untertrieben", da für die zur Zeit NICHT handelbaren Asset Backed Commercial Papers (ABCP) theoretische Preise angenommen wurden!
Ähnliches gilt für die Assets der Commerzbank: 1/3 des Portfolios bestehen laut diesem Bericht aus Assets mit "BBB" Rating (also noch nicht mal "AAA" Rating, welche momentan aber ebenfalls nur schwer verkäuflich sind. "BBB" ist daher aktuell noch schwerer zu bewerte, da der Markt dafür "ausgetrocknet" ist).
The Moment of Truth Is Approaching for Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank
September 24, 2007 (LPAC)--Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are increasingly in trouble, as it was reported that their real losses are remarkably larger than officially announced. Deutsche Bank losses are now estimated at 1.7 billions euros, according to Reuters, and Commerzbank at EUR 450 millions according to bank S. Oppenheim, as reported in the Financial Times Deutschland (FTD). These, however, are still conservative estimates, as they are based on theoretical prices assigned to assets that are not tradable, the famous ABCP.
Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank shares are in free-fall this morning on European stock markets. Last week, Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann had reported losses for about 2% of their EUR 29 billion assets, but today several analysts increased that percentage to 6%. This figure, however, will grow, as the value of those ABCP assets approaches zero. For instance, in the case of Commerzbank, it is reported today that one-third of its portfolio consists of assets that are currently valued at 50% of their nominal value. These assets, however, with a BBB rating, are not even traded. And in addition to that, 7.5% more assets have a lower rating. Remember that most subprime assets were rated AAA before the August breakout of the crisis. Commerzbank, like other banks, is hiding its real losses by a double accounting record: the trading books report official figures, while the bank books report the real losses.
