Heute gab es frische Zahlen für den Oktober von der National Association of Realtors (NAR) - ein Kommentar zu den Zahlen findet man u.a. bei marketwatch.com:
Supply of homes on market at 22-year high
Existing-home sales pace falls to 4.97 million for October, off 1.2%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:35 PM ET Nov 28, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes fell for an eighth straight month in October even as more properties came on the U.S. housing market, driving the supply of homes up for sale to the highest level in 22 years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.
Seasonally adjusted sales dropped 1.2% to an annualized pace of 4.97 million last month, the real-estate advocacy group said. The sales pace stands at the lowest seen since 1999, when the group began tracking combined sales of single-family homes and condominiums.
Sales are down 20.7% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak of 7.21 million two years ago.
The October sales pace was stronger than the 4.85 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The inventory of unsold homes rose by 1.9% to 4.45 million, representing a 10.8-month supply, the highest in at least eight years.
For single-family homes alone, the inventory of 10.5 months is the highest since July 1985.
The median sales price fell 5.1% in the past year to $207,800. That's the largest year-over-year price decline ever recorded.
As bleak as the data are, the fundamentals of the market don't support a further decline in sales, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said low mortgage rates and job growth should keep sales from falling. While the subprime mortgage market has disappeared, the Federal Housing Administration is picking up its lending.
"I don't anticipate any further major sales declines," Yun said. However, the NAR didn't anticipate the sales declines of the past two years, and it's been predicting a bottom nearly every month since early 2006.
If sales do continue to fall because of negative market psychology aided by "sensationalized" news reporting, "it would be a major concern" and "would raise the risk of an economic recession," Yun said.
"When will the bleeding stop?" wrote Patrick Newport, an economist for Global Insight. "How quickly housing prices drop is crucial in determining the turnaround. Our view is that prices will drop sufficiently for housing activity to hit bottom in mid-2008. Between now and then, though, home sales may drop more than 10% from current levels."
The current sales pace is a bit below the natural trend, said Mike Shenk, senior economist for the Credit Union National Association, a trade group. "We're going to stabilize," he said, then "limp along." It'll be a "long, slow process" of recovery.
Because people grow up, get married, take new jobs and finally die, "there's a natural level of people who have to move," said Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. "We've pierced below that."
Details
October sales fell 4.4% in the West, where sales have plunged 33% in the past year and are down 48% from the peak. The seizure of the jumbo mortgage market was a major factor in the sales slump in the West, Yun said.
Sales dropped 1.7% in the Midwest and were unchanged in the South and Northeast.
Sales of single-family homes were flat in October at a 4.37 million pace, matching September for the lowest level since January 1998. The median sales price for single-family homes is down a record 6.3% in the past year to $205,700.
Sales of condos fell 9.1% to a 600,000 annual pace. The median sales price rose 4.9% on a year-over-year basis to $223,500. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
