Mike Shedlock hat in seinem Blog darauf hingewiesen, dass in den vergangenen Tagen eine interessante Entwicklung bei den Zinsen für kurzfristige Staatsanleihen eingesetzt hat.
Diese kann man an der sogenannten "Yield-Curve" (Zinskurve) sehen, die die Zinsen über die verschiedenen Laufzeiten der Anleihen darstellt.
Seine Interpretation der Dinge:
The yield curve is indeed signaling something and that something begins with "R".
The above curve is thanks to Bloomberg and is as of 2007-08-20.
The yield on the 3 month T-Bill is currently sitting at 2.96 and the 6 month T-Bill is 3.94.That's lot of rate cuts priced in.
The 3 month T-bill rate was at 2.4% at the intra-day low. But not shown on the chart is a stunning drop on the 1 month rate to 1.34%. What's happened with the T-bill over the past few trading days is really unprecedented. It's a sign that this crisis is much worse than the stock market seems to think.
Any Money Market Fund heavily invested in mortgage backed securities is going to come to regret it as are "Government Bond Funds" of all sorts. Far and away, most government bond funds are heavily invested in agency paper (Fannie Mae garbage).
Anyone in a "government bond fund" or small high yield money market fund would be well advised to find out before it's too late, just what those funds are invested in. Unfortunately, it may already be way too late for some invested in those funds.
The sad thing is that investors were not remotely paid for the risk. Returns over US treasuries were stunningly minimal. The flight to safety has barely started. Expect more fireworks soon.
