Interessanter Kommentar von Mike Morgan in Mike Shedlock's Blog
Spillover
A few weeks ago I mentioned Clarence Otis, CEO of Darden Restaurants, commented that housing problems are affecting their business. This week Darden announced the demise of their Smokey Bones chain. They are going to close and sell the restaurants. And it’s not just Darden. Walk into any furniture store and talk to the sales reps. Do the same at Best Buy and Circuit City, and ask them about sales of big screen TV’s and computers. Boats, cars, clothing, jewelry and more. The housing ATM is out of money.
Ganze Restaurant-Ketten werden geschlossen und / oder verkauft - in diesem Fall "Smokey Bones". Und das ganze sicher nicht, weil das Geschäft momentan so klasse läuft!
Der Geldautomat "Eigenheim" ist leer!
Retail Sales
We saw some ominous numbers this week. Housing was to blame, along with gasoline prices. The housing ATM is out of money.
Über die miserablen Verkaufszahlen hatte ich letzte Woche schon geschrieben. Auch hier: Geldautomat "Eigenheim" ist leer...
Foreclosures
Last week I gave it a rest, and this week I’m not so sure this horse needs to be beaten anymore. However, I think it’s important to reinforce how widespread this problem is. It is a national problem that will truly not come to a head for another 6-12 months. And then it will hit like a ton of bricks. Here’s a great link to a graphic from the Star Tribune in Minneapolis on North Minneapolis Foreclosures. Minneapolis? I don’t think you can show me any part of the country that is not being touched by foreclosures.
And here’s the bad news that is going to get much worse. According to Foreclosures.com, for April 2007 v. April 2006, first notice of foreclosure climbed 127 percent, and homes going up for sale by auction jumped 164 percent. As the housing bust spillover spreads through the economy, these numbers will skyrocket.
Nach Angaben der Seite foreclosures.com, die Zwangsversteigerungen landesweit führt, stieg die Anzahl der Häuser, die per Auktion zum verkauf angeboten wurden, um 164%!!!
Oh, yes, one more thing. Most subprime mortgages have an adjustable mortgage rate and most of these loans were at teaser rates that will double, triple and quadruple mortgage payments over the next three years . . . even if interest rates remain stable. If rates rise, the problem goes nuclear. Add to the increasing mortgage payments . . . falling home prices. Negative equity is already a reality for millions of homeowners.
Noch ein Wort zu den Subprime-Krediten: die meisten dieser Kredite hatten niedrige Anfangszahlungen, die als "Lockmittel" benutzt wurden. Allerdings werden sich diese Zahlungen in den nächsten 3 Jahren verdoppeln bis verfierfachen - je nach Kreditvertrag und den abgeschlossenen Konditionen! Das heisst, selbst wenn die Zentralbank die Zinsen NICHT erhöht, kommen auf diese US-amerikansichen Haushalte enorme Belastungen zu. Ich will mir nicht ausmalen, was passiert, wenn die Zinsen angehoben werden!
