US-Dollar: auf neuem Rekord-Tief!

In einem Artikel auf Bloomberg wird ein "chinesischer Offizieller" damit zitiert, dass China seine ausländischen Währungsreserven, die aktuell einen Gegenwert von 1,43 Billionen US-Dollar haben, stärker diversifizieren will.
Das heisst allerdings nicht, wie auf einigen Seiten reisserisch zu lesen ist, dass China nun "aus dem US-Dollar aussteigt". Ich frage mich, wie sich die Leute, die solche Schlagzeilen schreiben, ein solches "mal eben aussteigen" praktisch vorstellen?!

Alternativen, die ich mir vorstellen könnte, wären z.B.

• Investition in "Hard Assets", also Rohstoffe oder Edelmetalle
• weltweite strategische Firmenaufkäufe / Übernahmen
• sukzessives Umschichten in andere Währungen

Also im Prinzip ein Tausch von "Papiergeld" in "reale Werte" - solange das Papiergeld "Dollar" als Tauschmittel noch akzeptiert wird.

Allerdings scheinen mir solche Äusserungen von offizieller Seite dann eher kontraproduktiv zu sein, denn laut dem Artikel von Bloomberg hat der US-Dollar nach dieser Äusserung seinen Abwärtstrend gegenüber anderen Währungen verstärkt, d.h. "eigentlich" haben die Chinesen sich damit einen Bärendienst erwiesen, da ihre Bestände mit jedem Tag, an dem der US-Dollar gegenüber allen anderen Währungen fällt, an Wert verlieren.

Hier nun der Artikel von Bloomberg:

Dollar Slumps to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves

By Stanley White and Kosuke Goto

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar slumped to a record low against the euro after a Chinese official said the government will favor stronger currencies as it diversifies $1.43 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves.

The currency declined to the weakest versus the Canadian dollar since it started trading freely, a 26-year low against the pound and a 23-year low to the Australian dollar. ``We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly,'' Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of China's National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing.

``We're likely to see further pressure on the dollar,'' said Thomas Harr, senior foreign exchange strategist in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc, a U.K. bank that makes most of its profit in Asia. ``The potential for diversification is quite big. This is a structurally negative story for the dollar.''

The U.S. currency slumped to $1.4666 per euro, the lowest since the 13-nation currency debuted in January 1999, before trading at $1.4644 at 2:56 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.4557 late yesterday. It fell to $1.0990 per Canadian dollar, the lowest since Canada's currency was floated in 1950. The dollar traded as low as 113.99 yen, the first time below 114 since Oct. 29.

The dollar may fall to $1.50 against the euro, Harr said.

The decline helped drive the price of crude oil to a record and gold to a 27-year high, encouraging investors to buy assets in commodity-producing nations. The dollar's 9.8 percent drop against the euro this year boosted the competitiveness of U.S. exports, helping shrink the nation's trade deficit to $57.6 billion in August, the smallest since January.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday brought his concerns to the U.S., saying ``you don't need too weak a dollar'' to spur growth in the world's largest economy.

China's Reserves
Chinese investors have reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries by 5 percent to $400 billion in the five months to August. China Investment Corp., which manages the nation's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, said last month it may get more of the nation's reserves to invest to improve returns.

``Cheng has a history of speaking out on a range of financial market and economic developments, and his comments are not always accurate,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.

Cheng's remarks on Jan. 30 that China's stock rally was a ``bubble'' caused the benchmark index to fall the most in almost two years on Jan. 31. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, then over 2,500 points, has since climbed above 5,300. Cheng added later today that diversification doesn't mean buying more euros.

Against the pound, the dollar declined to $2.0947, the lowest since May 1981. The currency slid against the Australian dollar to 93.81 U.S. cents, the lowest since April 1984 from 92.87 U.S. cents. The U.S. currency also fell to as low as 1.1347 against the Swiss franc, the lowest since December 2004.

``This is an asset story and shows sentiment for the dollar continues to be quite negative,'' said David Forrester, currency economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore.

Federal Reserve
The dollar slid against the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone as losses from subprime-mortgage defaults added to pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to 4.25 percent next month. It declined to 5.3403 kroner from 5.3474.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark borrowing cost to 6.75 percent today, while traders added to bets Norway's central bank will increase its 5 percent deposit rate.

``The interest-rate outlook is dragging down the dollar against major currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar,'' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at UBS AG, the world's second-largest currency trader. ``I cannot see the bottom of the dollar depreciation yet.''

Central Banks
Interest-rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 62 percent chance of a quarter-percentage point Fed rate cut on Dec. 11, compared with 6 percent a month ago. Citigroup Inc. may write down an additional $2.7 billion worth of subprime-related assets, CreditSights Inc. said yesterday.

Australian central bank Governor Glenn Stevens, announcing today's quarter-point rate increase, said inflation will exceed his target. Norwegian forward-rate agreements, a kind of interest-rate futures contract, gained yesterday on speculation the central bank will lift borrowing costs at least once more by the end of 2008. The Norges Bank next meets Dec. 12.

New Zealand's dollar rose to 78.75 U.S. cents from 78 U.S. cents on speculation a report tomorrow will show the unemployment rate remained at a record low, boosting the chance of another increase to the country's record 8.25 percent benchmark interest rate.

Subprime Loans
``The dollar is weak against a host of currencies, including the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar,'' said Mitsuru Sahara, senior currency sales manager at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's biggest publicly traded lender. ``We can't tell how much money banks will loose on subprime loans. The Fed is likely to cut rates again before the end of the year.''

Gains in the euro may be limited by speculation European economic growth is peaking out, reducing the need for higher interest rates.

The European Central Bank will keep its key rate at 4 percent tomorrow, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Data yesterday showed manufacturing orders in Germany fell more than expected in September.

``There is a European industrial complex which is now suffering from the euro being at such super expensive levels,'' said Peter Pontikis, treasury strategist at Suncorp-Metway Ltd. in Melbourne. ``The data all suggest you'll get a real slowdown. I'd be against the possibility of a rate hike.''

Europe's single currency will trade at $1.43 versus the dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts and brokerages surveyed by Bloomberg News.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net ; Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at kgoto2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 7, 2007 01:00 EST

Berichterstattung in den amerikanischen Massenmedien

Basierend auf einem Post in capitalstool.com:

Read a wall street journal yesterday that was filled with articles on the credit crunch. Not one of them got it right.

The lies being told in the mainstream and financial presses are reaching ludicrous levels. The articles cherry pick one subject to feel good about and act like the rest, taken as a whole, do not matter.

Not once have I read about the following things

- elimination of cash out mortgage equity withdrawal and the effect on consumption

- as real estate contracts, the service and construction jobs that surround it vanish raising unemployment levels

- ARM resets that last through 2012 forcing people to pay more for their loan every month, leading to less cash for spending

- the expense of loan bailout programs and their inability to help everyone who is over extended unless they throw trillions at the problem.

- food inflation (meats, dairy, produce).. unless prices fall, this will cut into discretionary spending.

- the complete breakdown of ratings agencies, and the unreliability of "credit reports". Just because a person previously paid their bills on time doesn't mean they won't default on their $800k mortgage when they have to make the full PITI (principle, interest, taxes, insurance) payment on their $120k or less family income.

Then there is the trickle down economic aspect... so much money was flowing from the home ATM, and the home lending business comissions (RE agent, brokers, etc). This money flow is rapidly stopping. From all the stories I've read the people in these industries were spending tons of money on cars, homes, shopping, etc. What is there to replace their money?

The New York Times today posted an article saying that incomes are still below the 2000 peak. That was seven years ago!

To top it off, the largest job gains over the last five years have been in real estate, construction, and local/state/federal government jobs! Nearly all of these jobs have been made possible by the willingness of everyone to go into deep debt. Now the debt can't be paid back unless the states and Feds go into more debt in order to bailout the debtors. Who is going to buy that debt, and at what rate of return?

In den amerikanischen Massenmedien wird offenbar nur ein Teil des Problems diskutiert. Die aktuelle Krise ist eine Sache - allerdings eregeben sich aus ihr weitere Probleme in der Zukunft, z.B.

• die Möglichkeit, das eigene Haus als "Geldautomat" zu nutzen wird bei weiter sinkenden Immobilienpreisen gegen 0 tendieren
• die Zinsen von ARM-Krediten werden bis in's Jahr 2012 steigen, wodurch sich das monatlich zur freien Verfügung stehehende Geld weiter verringert
• die Versuche, in Notlage geratene Schuldner durch staatliche Programme zu "retten" - allerdings sind die dafür zur Verfügung stehenden Summen viel zu gering -> es gibt schon einige Berichte darüber, dass viele Haushalte schon zu verschuldet sind, als dass man ihnen mit solchen Massnahmen noch helfen könnte
• Nahrungsmittel-Inflation
  

Zuguterletzt: ein Grossteil der Jobs, die über die letzten Jahre entstanden sind, haben direkt oder indirekt mit dem Immobilienboom zu tun - und dieser war nur möglich durch die Bereitschaft der Leute, sich in Schulden zu stürzen.
Wenn diese Bereitschaft nun entweder nicht mehr vorhanden ist - oder aber es einfach nicht mehr möglich ist, sich weiter zu verschulden, weil z.B. die Banken das Risiko nicht mehr tragen wollen, Kredite an "jeden" zu vergeben, wird der Geldfluss in die Wirtschaft zum Erliegen kommen.
Die andere Frage wäre dann, was mit den Schulden passiert, die sich in den letzten Jahren bei den privaten Haushalten aufgetürmt haben. Rauskaufen durch die Zentralbanken? Dazu müssten die FEDs wiederum neuen Schulden in riesigen Ausmassen aufnehmen - und wer kauft diese Schulden dann wiederum von der FED - und zu welchen Konditionen?

USA und die "Zins-Zwickmühle"

Ein Beispiel für die Zwickmühle, in der die USA aktuell stecken:

Because the U.S. government runs large budget deficits, it must borrow heavily. “China is one of America’s most important external lenders,” holding more than $416 billion in U.S. securities, Roach said. If the United States were to impose trade sanctions to force China to change its currency policies, “the Chinese might understandably have less of an appetite” for U.S. debt. To attract other lenders, the U.S. Treasury would have to offer higher interest rates on its securities, touching off a spiral of rising rates that would affect consumers, homeowners and businesses.

China ist mit mehr als $416 Milliarden aktuell einer der grössten Gläubiger der USA, mit täglich steigender Tendenz. Wenn die USA allerdings Handels-Sanktionen gegenüber China verhängen, um damit China zu einem Umdenken in ihrer Währungspolitik zu bewirken, wird China - verständlicherweise - zukünftig weniger "Appetit" auf US-Schulden haben.
Um jedoch anderen, alternativen Kreditgebern die US-Schulden attraktiv zu machen, müssten die USA die Zinsen deutlich anheben - was schlussendlich Konsumenten, Hauseigentümern und die gesamten Wirtschaft gleichermassen treffen würde.